Life the Sahir way

"Main zindagi ka saath nibhata chala gaya,

Har fikr ko dhuye mein udata chala gaya.

Barbadiyon ka sog manana fizool tha,

Barbadiyon ka jashn manata chala gaya.

Jo mil gaya usi ko muqaddar samajh liya,

Jo kho gaya main usko bhulata chala gaya.

Gham aur khushi mein fark na mehsoos ho jahaan,

Main dil ko uss makaam pe lata chala gaya."

- Sahir Ludhiyanvi

Story of global meltdown, Capital Inflows & Liquidity

News wires have been glut with news related to weak US economy data; newer sub prime delinquencies and unwinding of carry trades and among all increasing Indian stock market index

No wonder there has been excesses perpetrated by US market. At the time when the US Federal bank should have tightened the economy, allowed those free money and result was subprime balloon to burst today. Today the same central bank is resorting to allow further free money to manage a crisis. (Note: US Fed cut the benchmark rates twice to 4.50%)

No wonder, tightness in liquidity and slow down in economy is visible in fall of asset prices. US, UK and Japan stock markets are trading below their 14 months low levels. Once a poster currency, USD has been battered against all major currencies and woes doesn’t seem to fade away. USD is currently trading at all time lows against Sterling, Euro and Swiss Franc

Ensuing weak data and tight liquidity bolster the expectation of further cut in US rates. Rate cuts increased the flow to emerging markets resulting in higher volatility and surge in asset prices. Cut in interest rates have also fueled the commodity prices to higher levels. As a hedge against slowdown and weaker USD precious metals have touched all time highs. Gold is trading above USD 800 per ounce

In the wake of higher crude oil prices and tight liquidity there are clear worrying signals for global economy

While Indian diaspora continues to be in growth trajectory, regulator faces the conundrum of balancing capital inflows, exchange rate and price stability. Recent measures including CRR hike, regulation of capital flows, ban on participatory notes and routine forex interventions have left market groping in dark about the future policy action

Indian capital market attracted nearly USD 16 bn during Apr'07-Nov'07. Foreign Exchange reserves as of Nov 02’2007 increased to USD 266.5 bn as against USD 199.17 bn as on March 31’ 2007. During the same period Indian INR appreciated nearly 10% against USD

Inflation (WPI) has shown a decreasing trend over the period of last five months and is largely due to higher base effect of previous year. Inflation for the week ended Oct 27th stood at 2.97%. The base effect appears fading in coming months and inflation appears to be in the vicinity of more than 4% by March’07

Globally crude oil prices have risen by more than 30% over the period of five months. Further to it, the fuel as a component in WPI has shown a negative inflation as against overall WPI number. This is noticeable in the context of not passing of fuel price hike to the consumer. It is estimated that increase in fuel prices alone would push inflation up by nearly 1%. Considering this inflation is expected to be in the range of 5% by March 2007

As a cost free tool RBI resorted to repetitive increases in Cash reserve requirements. RBI raised CRR for the third time during the year and increased by 1.25% so far to 7.5%

In a surprise move most of the banks have reduced deposit rates across maturities and this has been mostly aimed to counter increased pool cost on account of increased CRR requirement. In spite of festival season and slew of measures to boost retail demand, slow down in credit off take has not shown any sign of reversal. The YOY credit growth for the fortnight ending Oct 26th slipped to 22.47% as against near 28% at the beginning of FY’07


Further corrections in global asset prices can not be ruled out. However, emerging markets would continue to see higher valuations on account of further rate cuts in developed economies and better return on investments.

Slower credit off-take would provide ground for lower interest rate regime but this moderation seems unlikely till the clarity on capital inflows emerges. Given huge inflows and higher prices, RBI would be right to maintain a tough stance. The direction of near term interest rates would be critically dependent on RBI policy targeting the liquidity conditions

Indian equity market story remains intact and any developed country loss is India's gain. Its right the global turmoil would be contagious but in near term India stays insulated. Any investor requires greener pastures and india and other emerging markets provide the same. As long as cheaper money trade off available India money would keep flowing into emerging markets. However, while we wallow in this borrowed pleasure, caution cant be unwarranted

Marvels

Little acts of emotion
eases out the comotion

Gentle pat on the shoulder
an infallible moral booster

One small genuine sorry
makes belittled any folly

Flash of a sweet smile
Crashes distance of mile

A firm clasp of Palm
Soothens like a balm

Warm hug does wonder
Exuberates the beholder

Unbridled little gesture
Lets loose the Rapture

Elation...

Soft & soothing tap like balm
Caressess and mood goes calm

Moves away felt so coy
lonely corner craves the joy

Lips still, hands clutched
Eyes sparkle & heart touched

Feelings flow, moments perish

Serenity reigns as spirits relish

The Crevice !!!

A ray of hope every morning,

gives boost to the yearning

Dreaming to rule the world,

turning the stones unfurled

Knocked the door once, knocked the door twice,

Knocking & knocking until it breaks the ice

The passage is shut while the problems galore,

nothing shaping as attempts come to the fore

Life appears meagre with fading vigour,

But passion keeps pushing newer endeavour

Day leaves the traces of learning,

Ignites the latent desire burning

World you crave, right there exists,

Till the irreplaceble spark persists

A ray of hope every morning,

Giving boost to the yearning

The Devil Inside

While travelling one morning, happens to see a man falling from his cycle, the reaction, felt bad for him. While few go and give him a helping hand, a kid seeing him falling starts laughing. What an oxymoron, same action draws a different reaction. A child whose heart is so pure, laughs at this. What is this, a devil inside?

Battle between good and bad or say good and devil has continued since ages. A kid, whose mind is a clean slate can laugh on someone's pain only when the devil is uncontrolled. Gives a sense as if demon the basic nature of a person. Devilish is the first feeling often comes to the mind. A kid is so pure that expresses, and he grows up tuning the mind and filter the feelings. The reactions no longer remain unbridled but are trained ones

In essence, the good and devil co-exist, it be heart or a society. The importance of good is because there exist something bad. Relevance of fair complexioned skin is because there is one with dark skin. Positive is so 'coz there is a negative. Sum up all and its a zero sum game. Little pondering shows these to be extreme words and in reality don't exist other than semantics. A good man is good as long as some better man is not identified. A lady is beautiful until some prettier one comes in picture. Nothing actually is perfect or eternal. Its just a matter of relativity, importance is only till the options are not sighted

How dull the life would have been if the feeling of being wicked never existed. The naughty kids breaking windows, eve teasing, giving excuses for the sins, flirting, adultery, stealing, frauds are all a relative forms of devil and just vary in the impact. A devil less world would have turned into a land of saints and could have even hurdled the growth of population

What differentiates a human from other human, or a civilization from a civilization is ability to decipher things or balance the feelings or say devils. Actions and reactions of grown ups based on sheer desires without foreseeing the consequences could be disastrous for oneself or others

The emotions by nature are so 'coz dont carry any logic but the actions are in the hands of an individual. A controlled devil is dangerous as it refuses to be suppressed. Need is to make devil a good friend. Know the devil, understand him and channelise him. Its exisitence makes ground for the good to prolifer. A little devil adds charms to life, makes it enjoyable

Next time when embrace the goodness, give a peck on cheek of the devil inside. The life just gets spiced up!!!!

Monday Blues

The beautiful musical guitar sound echoes in the room, but today it appears too noisy. Hands move on and suffocate the apparent screeching alarm. Finally after an hour long struggle between the desire and running time, I get up to move on. Its bad, very bad Monday morning after a kool two days weekend

With the jaws open to grab a deep breath, I yawn endlessly in the office chair. Opened excel file just shows the busy status though the eyes see nothing. End up struggling, I take the newspaper and start reading. Oh still eyes going shut and the phone ring awakes me to add to the woes, the review meeting with director gets preponed

Given the sense of urgency, I splashed water on the face and get ready to give a charged up image. In the active environment meeting proceeds with participation from me and everybody. I thought, I was active until I am asked an opinion. Alas! I had ushered in sleepy state with open eyes. Two hour long meeting finally gets over with no apparent embarrassments

The sumptuous lunch starts putting further pressure on struggling eye lashes. The day appears like never ending soap opera of star plus channel, and every passing minute looks like ages. Finally I decide to go home early instead of sitting unproductive. The clock ticks four in the evening. Still making the plans to catch a beautful nap after reaching home, bosses summon some critical information. Somehow, corporates are bitten by a culture of asking deliverables in the late evening and all is supposed to be provided yesterday. Sleeps gets buried, mind goes hyper and fingers move actively on key board

Its 8 in the evening, I am still working with no one around. The ordeal of being sleepy does not exist anymore. By the time, I get into my cozy bed, clock already shows midnight. Mind is tired, eyes are open, the elusive sleep takes time to grab me. As the moment comes at a slow pace, falling appears fun, material world carrying no meanings, I fall in dreams. Hours fly away like minutes, the night seems too short in the sedative arms of goddess of sleep

The mad gold Rush

Contours of his personality tell he is simple, hard working, bows to the orders. Barely went to school upto class 10th and drives his bosses's luxury sedans or a taxi or work elsewhere to earn a humble living. Living a life that is as normal as almost all of lower income people in a metro

Lived in a small chawl in a room having six family members adjacent to a luxurious commercial complex making them feel inferior every morning when the sunlight gets blocked by the glass walls of buildings. Not tired of the hardships of life, he goes to work with usual aspiration of getting permanent in his job as a driver

Never dreamt of the commerical value of his vicinty, gets an offer from opportunistic builder to buy the small chawls at a price that would make jealous, his over qualified top honchos at work place. The builder acquire all the nearly 400 chawls at an average price of Rs 10 mn. Overwhelmed by the offer, poor man rushes to his qualified seniors in the company to test veracity. The offer was genuine and the guy had turned an overnight millionaire and becomes a point of jealous debate. He moves out from the dingy location, buys a bigger house in a distant suburb and continues working on his humble job with a healthy residual bank balance

The story is not of just one guy but resembles to thousands staying in slums in a metro. Over night many have turned far richer than who these were subservient to. Is it destiny, pot luck or a well deserved money? Was this actually over night or destiny was waiting for long time to strike? Many of us study to get qualified and command a reputed jobs in pursuit of respectable life and stiking gold at some point of time

Forgetting the miseries the poor men would have gone before, the cozy life I have lived all along, overjealous, still working twelve hours a day in anticipation of striking gold one day. But if I do, will it give an everlasting smile?

Problem of Plenty: Hail RBI

Finally the rabit is out of central bank's hat that used the ruled out tool of CRR hike. Some how market was sitting largely on one side expecting rates to peak and should gradually start falling. RBI has received criticism from various treasury desks for doing the unexpected, citing the wrong measure

Lets look at central bank's action in the back drop of changed scenario. Unlike ten years back, craving for a pie of foreign funds, India todays faces a problem of abundance. The first three month for the fiscal received nearly $ 23 bn against the annyal target of $ 25 bn. Clearly India is an attractive destination for investments, but it calls for robust monetary management

The huge flows can simply fly away with same pace and cause severe shocks to the economy and needs proper channelisation of money in productive areas on a sustainable basis. Further in the short term surplus money gets created in the system and cause inflationary pressures. To manage this, it requires RBI to suck the liquidity out of system

Call money rate in last many weeks have remained below 1% , this scenrario appears dangerous when the economic is growing at 9% rate and inflation above 5%. Allowing abysmal low call rate persistently, may give a permamanent belief to banks who in turn start funding longer term assets with overnight borrowings

Give the urgency RBI was right in hiking CRR rate and removing cap on reverse repo borrowings. A lot more needs to be done by increasing the limit of MSS so as to remove excess liquidity. Parrallely India needs to evolve a sustainable FDI policy and a deeper monetary system

Once the economy opens up and the India gets used to the funds inflow and outflow, it should see the least intervention from central bank. Till then stance is right to have liquidity management and market needs to be ready to face frequent changes in policy

Life is full of Campa Cola

Life is full of campa cola, ad campaign launched more than 2 decades ago by a cola company to market its beverage

One day my colleague uttered this word in a non-chalant outburst on some offical matter, " Life is full of campa cola". How true the statement that life is full of campa cola, the fun is as long as the fizz is in the bottle. Open the bottle it just goes off. Ever thought the fun of life, the craze is lasting until its explored

When a group of entreprenurs start a company, it starts with so much passion, plans are laid down and full hog efforts are made that goes beyond time check. Every small success is celebrated, every action is appraised. Soon the company grows and then gets stagnated and here we start claiming elephants cant dance

Similar things is witnessed when a couple nurture a relationship, at inception they start wooing each other in every possible best maner, curiosity is high to know each other and are too conscious of every move. As the relationship progresses, the enthusiasm starts falling apart and life becomes a routine function as no further dreams are seen together

This is the importance of fizz in every walk of life, activity or relation. The fizz has to be maintained to keep the things going. It be a long term goal, a vision, a company formation or a relationship, it has to be reinvented & a trigger is needed to give further spikes. Managers have to give new dimensions to their work, couples need to see new dreams and individuals need to sharpen the edges

The taste of campa cola is only in that small bottle. Life is also made up of mutilple bottles and every bottle carries its fizz. Once the fizz is over, the value of bottle is last and we pick up the next one and life goes on. We need to find fizz i.e. reasons to smile. The growth and happiness lies in how fast we cherish the fizz and move to the next ones

Enjoy the moments & the life before it fizzles away... Life is full of campa cola, comes with expiry date and little fizz

Dreams & You

"Dreams are not what we see when sleep, but dreams are things that never let us sleep"

-------

In the name of the best within you, do not sacrifice this world to those who are its worst. In the name of the values that keep you alive, do not let your vision of man be distorted by the ugly, the cowardly, the mindless in those who have never achieved his title. Do not lose your knowledge that man’s proper estate is an upright posture, an intransigent mind and a step that travels unlimited roads.

Don't Let your fire go out,
Spark by irreplaceable spark,
in the hapless swamps of the approximate,
the not-quite, the not-yet, the not-at-all.

Don't let the hero in your soul perish,
in lonely frustration for the life you deserved,
but have never been able to reach

Check your road and nature of your battle

The world you deserved can be won,

It exists,

Its real,

Its possible,

Its YOURS.......

- Ayan Rand

Man a happier soul

Ever thought why men are happier than females.

Root of happiness lies in simplicity and not complications. Consistency is the key with this animal, no erratic mood swings, retains the family name. Has a mind that is used to think and doesnt bother heart for it. Loves to forgive and ignores the pitfalls, hates postmortems. Avoids loads of history in relations and is receptive

He finsihes phone call in few minutes and also gets ready in 10 minutes. Doesnt need to bath twice a day or even bath everyday. Doesnt wash face every 30 min and even gets bored with his own face in mirror

Packs a small bag for a week's vacation. One pair of jeans can last for long time. Single pair of shoes is enough for whole year and can repeat shirts every week. Doesnt keep a track of what his friends wore on previous party. Friendship survives the errors or ommisions for not wishing on birthdays. Takes just required time & lesser money to finish monthly shopping. Can manage with teeth without searching nail cutters

Single cupboard is enough to keep all clothes & stuffs and does not hoard packing covers of stuffs purchased. Accepts criticism about himself, family and listens patiently to his partner. Doesnt carry work home and lives in present. Doesnt need to meet friends everyday and flexible with schedules

Eyes do not chase the last glimpse of pals bidding bye. Doesnt cry or think but speaks what runs thru mind. Doesn't have to be pregnant and assertive that sex is healthy fun. Chocolate or icecream is just another sweet stuff. Needs only appropriate time to pronounce words like cute or sweet

Make no mistakes, man is just an animal behaving this way. Over all its too boring the life until he finds gal who loves doing just opposite

Man is like a battery.... needs charging. Females are those batteries, to be happy we got to live with them... its okie if batteries have positive side also :)

Life at Sea

Its morning standing facing the sea. So lound in a silent environs. Waves come and recede and the newer ones keep coming. Every wave shows a sharp move and then signs of exhaustion in trailing ones and the water returns without reaching the feet. Look little farther, the new one is forming and running towards you and actually goes past making even the knees wet. Goes back again in a shell , dies but always back with vigour as the new waves keep forming

Venture deeper, the parallel is easily drawn between the vagaries of wave movement and a human nature. The mind functions in same fashion with the mood swings. Every fresh thing pulls an upbeat wave, mind turns hyperactive and then reaches exhaustion. Soon the wave dies and mind moves in a shell. Life moves on and new waves keep forming keeping it chequered with ups and down

The vagaries go with every man, woman, a kid or any oldy but the personalities are formed based on the manner we approach the waves. The key lies in elongating the upward waves and slowing down the downward ones. A visionary would keep looking for the newer epicenters of waves leading to greener pastures while enjoying the upbeat ride of the exisitng ones

Happy are they who accept the cycle, go up with the trend and not shy of falling with a will to come back with fresh move. Life is like a sea with commotion on the surface and tranquility in depth. Peace comes from wave handling. So next time when the life is dull, look for the traling fresh wave pushing you reach the shores.. its always there near or little farther

Looming inflation or overheating!! who is getting it right??

“Government would act strongly against companies not controlling prices”, sounds like a statement made in a pre-liberalization era against erring money lenders. Make no mistakes, these are the sentiments echoed by our own finance minister who is well acclaimed for pro growth polices, making attempts to control the prices

For a moment let’s overlook the retrograde statements and look at the broader picture. The question is, how critical the inflation is or whether its the real culprit?

Look at the inflation picture in India, the data is as presented on a year on year basis. It’s a common understanding that commodity prices are subject to seasonal vagaries. This suggests that the YOY inflation published would be seasonally adjusted to throw a right picture. However the same is not taken cognizance of & the high inflation rate that we see now is actually a past

During April’06- Aug’06, crude prices mostly remained above $70 and globally wheat prices surged by more than 26% around Oct’2006. The impact of these supply shocks can be seen in week on week inflation however that is not what is shown. The low base of 52 weeks back index has resulted in higher yoy inflation number in recent months. The problem that appears now is actually got over few months back

Given the benign crude prices & already factored in grain prices, inflation would adjust automatically by May onwards & this all would happen without government taking any measures on price control. So all measures announced by government are keeping an eye over elections and later pat its back & get the credit

Given the government besotted with the inflation number, crazy actions may create more trouble. Wrong messages go to the industry and confidence gets shaken. Lot would depend on the expected supply of grains in coming months and monsoon picture. Moreover, any trouble in Gulf can also shake the oil supplies

The time is for monetary measures & RBI needs to take appropriate measure to balance the growth and stability of prices. However, the same seems to be missing from the scene. Continuous monetary measures taken in recent past were inadequate to control the rapid growth that might not be sustainable. It would be appropriate for RBI to take right measure and give clear path to the economy. The need is of a long term policy direction and sense of urgency, before the delayed action kills the growth

Emerging India: Is it sustainable?

Stock market tumbled to 3600 levels from 4,200 a fortnight ago. Nearly 15% wiped off & analysts are once again out with the laundry List of excuses. To table a few: (1) Pro electoral budget is back & the industry was not ready to face any such measure by FM at this juncture, (2) Inflation is a concern and high interest rates are a big dampener for growth (3) & a whimper global alibi, its the yen carry getting unwound and FIIs funds are getting withdrawn

As a practice lets get back to dissection table:
NIFTY moved from 2600 levels to 4200 in less than 12 months time frame, a whopping 70% jump. Given NIFTY the barometer of economy and supposedly a bellwether index, the growth needs to be in sync with economy. Even economy manages to grow at double digit for five years; does this justify the rise in index?
Lots said about India, an emerging market and growth story in place, fundamental is strong, industry firing on all cylinders and running on autopilot. All the optimism gets tucked away under carpet once the fall starts.

Four pillars of the economy; a benign political environment, cheaper funding cost, a good infrastructure & a sound management. A country where the financial hub (Bombay) undergoes deluge every year, Industry shuts for two days every week due to power cut and regulatory bodies lacking policy directions, inflation touching as high as 7% & even after 15 years of liberalization country FM decides cement pricing

Even if the growth is there, the question here is are we prepared for this. We have come to conclusion that the burgeoning population is an asset but what about the quality. The growth needs qualified manpower & skill sets. Budget showed huge revenue collections & boasts about meeting fiscal deficit target & FM brags about industry on autopilot but drivers seems missing

Time was ripe to invest in infrastructure & education heavily but we missed to popular tunes. Once the economy grows at double digit for couple of years, shortage of skill set would kill further growth

Inflation is a concern true and there could be three ways to curb: fiscal, monetary & supply side. Monetary policy seems to lack a long-term approach and continues with only operational tools targeting liquidity. Supply side sees a crazier approach when FM urging companies to cut prices and prohibits them from accessing market

And here comes the global bang, the country that still prepares for full convertibility gets serious bouts of global incidents. Hope the yen carry does not impact much and Central bank had preempted the situation. Moot point here is not the affect of global market or Stock market movements but are we prepared for the growth. Economy is bound to grow but is it sustainable? It needs a strong infrastructure, pro developmental policies & freer play for industry and most importantly a developed demography

Lets not wallow in the happiness of short-term growth and get sanctimonious about the same. Whatever goes up has to come down & only thing we can do is to control the fall or elongate the upward & downward move.

So leaders, industrialists, regulators & investors, its time to wake up before the gas runs out of the cylinders and the firing growth turns into smoke